Hurricane Dean...sweating out the hurricane season

As I monitor the internet http://www.wunderground.com/ and TV's The Weather Channel for the latest updates on Hurricane Dean, I have to wonder how much better we've become in the last 20 years at predicting hurricanes. I've been reading up today on all the different models such as the Mariner's Model, the Historic Model, the computer model, and the 3-day and the 5-day cone of uncertainty. All of it leaves me very befuddled, especially the computer model and the historic model which change radically with every three hour NOAA update.

Each time the hurricane changes from a category 2 to a 3 and vice versa, the model changes. The smartest model to me looks to be the Mariners 1-2-3 model which tells folks where to stay out of harms way.

When the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico and and is 600 miles due south of Galveston, I end up with "my model", which has me looking up every barometric pressure reading from Brownsville, Texas to Key West, Florida. The map point that has the lowest barometric pressure readings is generally where the hurricane goes in. I was only 200 miles off (to the east) when Hurricane Rita hit in 2005. I thought for sure that Rita was going into Freeport, Texas and that Houston would be on the eastern or dirty side of the storm. Luckily, Houston remained mostly out of harm's way, but everything in the coastal areas from Port Arthur, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana was wiped off the map. (I know, most of what you heard about during 2005 was Hurricane Katrina.)

Although I was off about the landing point that year, I will never regret evacuating my family early, two days before the storm hit.

We'll keep our fingers crossed for good luck, and I'll let you know how it goes.